Navigating Uncertainty: The Power of Knowledge Creation and Adaptability
In the vast tapestry of existence, two entities stand out as creators of knowledge: Evolution by Natural Selection and Humans through conjecture and error. Ironically, while humans are the product of evolution, our rate of innovation far surpasses that of our evolutionary roots. This paradox highlights the unique role humans play in shaping the world.
One of the most intriguing phenomena in this journey is the concept of “black swans”—rare yet significant events that we fail to predict. This failure often stems from the illusion of understanding that empiricism provides, as noted by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. We tend to view these events as isolated incidents rather than integral parts of a larger reality, which sets the stage for future black swans. As David Deutsch emphasizes in “The Fabric of Reality,” good explanations are powerful because they extend their reach and illuminate the very fabric of reality.
A testament to the predictive power of good explanatory knowledge is the prediction of black holes long before their detection. However, it’s crucial to recognize that this does not imply the future can be predicted with certainty. As Deutsch points out, “The future of civilization is unknowable, because the knowledge that is going to affect it has yet to be created.”
In a 2018 TEDx talk, Deutsch underscores a fundamental limit on the power of science, technology, and reason to predict the future. He argues that significant innovations have unforeseen knock-on effects, and as knowledge grows, the “planning horizon” for predictions becomes shorter. This means that the more knowledge we create, the less certain we can be about the future.
Given this unpredictability, a new approach to the future is necessary. We cannot plan for years or even months in advance. While goals and milestones provide direction, the potential for unpredictable events requires adaptability.
Humans are problem solvers at heart, driven by a desire to understand. Our approach to life is a continuous process of solving problems and expanding our understanding of the world. The more knowledge we create, the better it is for humanity. We must anticipate new problems and embrace the path of seeking understanding as our guide.
People often seek certainty and order, yet perfect order is an illusion. Learning to manage uncertainty and solve problems with deliberate effort is essential. We must play the game of life with the cards we have been dealt.
The knowledge economy is fascinating in that increased knowledge creation likely makes the world more unpredictable, further shortening the planning horizon. Cultures and religions that stifle new thinking by censoring questions create a pseudo-order or stability due to a lack of innovation and growth. New knowledge brings its own consequences, and we cannot predict the unforeseen effects of its creation. This is why some radical cultures and customs resist change, implementing safeguards to prevent it.
Our curiosity to seek understanding and embrace adaptability is our greatest ally. In a world where the future is inherently uncertain, these qualities will guide us in navigating the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
